My opinion is that you can get a rough idea of probabilities (not what will happen, but probabilities) based on past price behavior. Same with almost any other prices.
Probabilities like that can be calculated based on data.
I had been of the same idea just a few years ago. No, it doesn't work. And what is even more troublesome and damaging (besides just not working) is the feeling of false confidence that may and will cost you dear in the long run...
I learned it the hard way