Ninjastic
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 28/09/2015, 20:31:23 UTC
Quote from: Peter R on September 28, 2015, 05:27:41 PM
Quote from: 600watt on September 28, 2015, 08:58:39 AM
Quote from: Feri22 on September 28, 2015, 08:38:35 AM
Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  Cool

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k  Wink  

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

Yes, that does seem a bit bullish, and surely I would like that to be true, but I put the odds at less than 2% for some close variation of that scenario to play out.  Oh, I surely would like to see it happen, and I think that it is a very plausible scenario.. but let's just say that I have my doubts (maybe I am being worn out and a bit jaded based on the past 22 months of downward BTC price pressures).


By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  greater than 50% chance, or are you just saying that the odds are somewhere greater than my less than 2% projection, for example?