Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
TPTB_need_war
on 01/10/2015, 01:52:09 UTC
Gold will separate from commodities, because it will be seen as hedge against collapsing government. Commodities will tank because of deflation.

Only once the US government shows signs of collapsing which won't happen right away. In fact rising US stocks (and likely other asset prices, except maybe bonds) will boost capital gains tax collections, especially once the retail investors jumps on board, incomes will grow as the asset bubble drives jobs (and regular income tax collections), and the government will initially look to be in better shape than ever.

The problems in the emerging markets will be blamed on low productivity, corruption, speculative excesses, etc. (which has some basis in fact which is what makes it plausible), just as we have seen in the Euro zone.

Only later is it plausible that the government will look to be in trouble and gold (and maybe Bitcoin) will get a bid.

Gold will catch a bid along with US stocks because the rest of the world will be in such collapsing chaos. It won't take much capital moving into gold to reignite its bull market, because it is such a small market cap. Not everyone can buy the US stock market. Some abroad will buy gold and crypto instead. The bottom for gold and crypto should be some time between Spring and 2016.825. We are waiting for the burgeoning contagion to really bust out with a final peak in sovereign bonds.

Also generally speaking there will be much fewer assets to choose from, as most will be collapsing. This will focus attention on those small market cap assets with huge upside and correlated with the demand for things that do well when government is collapsing.

And even more so for Bitcoin and even more, more so for small market altcoins that have something unique to offer that is really necessary (if there are any).