I agree with RHavar there, but IMO the historical data of wagered amounts (and therefor expected profit) is relevant in deciding to invest in a site. If the wagered amount is fairly stable you can make an estimation of estimated profits for the future (together with house edge / commission / your BR share.) Even though the actual profits can look different because of variance.
The historical data of actual profit is indeed rather useless for deciding to invest, because of variance.
I think that is what hopenotlate meant. Currently MP only shows "actual profit" but you cannot imagine if it's high/low/normal because of variance. For that you need to know "expected profit".
That being said, I actually have an hidden page that shows those "estimated gains" for all invest-sites (based on wagered/BR/HE/commission.) But it's hidden because it might motivate investors to invest in whatever site gives the "best numbers" without realizing the most important factor:
Ps, I actually use short-term expected vs actual profits myself to decide to invest. This sounds like a fallacy, but let me explain. I believe with the current sites when a whale wins big, the chances are high he losses it all the next days after that. I don't really base this on variance/math or whatever, just on how it goes a lot of times. So I personally actively monitor sites to see where there was a big win (generally from 1 player) in the last 1 or 2 days. And if I estimate the player will keep playing, I invest more at that site. Worked great for me so far
The historical data of actual profit is indeed rather useless for deciding to invest, because of variance.
I think that is what hopenotlate meant. Currently MP only shows "actual profit" but you cannot imagine if it's high/low/normal because of variance. For that you need to know "expected profit".
That being said, I actually have an hidden page that shows those "estimated gains" for all invest-sites (based on wagered/BR/HE/commission.) But it's hidden because it might motivate investors to invest in whatever site gives the "best numbers" without realizing the most important factor:
and how much you trust the site
Ps, I actually use short-term expected vs actual profits myself to decide to invest. This sounds like a fallacy, but let me explain. I believe with the current sites when a whale wins big, the chances are high he losses it all the next days after that. I don't really base this on variance/math or whatever, just on how it goes a lot of times. So I personally actively monitor sites to see where there was a big win (generally from 1 player) in the last 1 or 2 days. And if I estimate the player will keep playing, I invest more at that site. Worked great for me so far