You have your hypothesis and I have mine.  We will only be able to determine which is correct with the benefit of hindsight.  Like I said upthread, the nice thing is that these hypotheses are at least partly testable.  If your theory is correct (that the market will tolerate a limit to the left of Q*) then that would have the affect of pushing aggregate fees above the aggregate cost of production for block space.  If the total miner fees collected over a six month period in the future were, for example, twice the total block rewards lost due to orphaning, then I think I would agree that your theory is correct.  

Time will tell.