Inflation occurs when the price of goods and services rise, while deflation occurs when those prices decrease. The balance between the two economic conditions is delicate, and an economy can quickly swing from one situation to the other.
Inflation is caused when goods and services are in high demand, creating a drop in availability. Consumers are willing to pay more for the items they want, causing manufacturers and service providers to charge more. Supplies can decrease for many reasons: A natural disaster can wipe out a food crop or a housing boom can exhaust building supplies, among other situations.
Deflation occurs when too many goods are available or when there is not enough money circulating to purchase those goods. For instance, if a particular type of car becomes highly popular, other manufacturers start to make a similar vehicle to compete. Soon, car companies have more of that vehicle style than they can sell, so they must drop the price to sell the cars. Companies that find themselves stuck with too much inventory must cut costs somewhere, which often leads to layoffs. Unemployed individuals do not have enough money available to purchase expensive items, which continues the trend.
When credit providers detect a decrease in prices, they often reduce the amount of credit they offer. This creates a credit crunch where consumers cannot access loans to purchase big-ticket items, leaving companies with overstocked inventory and leading to further deflation. Deflation can lead to an economic recession or depression, and the central banks usually work to stop deflation as soon as it starts.
Demand pull inflation usually occurs when there is an increase in aggregate monetary demand caused by an increase in one or more of the components of aggregate demand (AD), but where aggregate supply (AS) is slow to adjust.
The commonest causes are demand shocks, such as:
Earnings rising above factor productivity.
Cheaper credit, following a reduction in interest rates.
Excessive public sector borrowing.
A housing boom creating equity withdrawal and a positive wealth effect.
Changes in the savings ratio.
The savings ratio
The savings ratio indicates the percentage of disposable income which is saved, rather than spent. Sudden changes in the savings ratio are an indicator of future changes in spending and AD, and can be a prelude to inflation or deflation.
A rise in the savings ratio indicates a decline in consumer confidence, whereas a fall in the savings ratio indicates a rise in confidence and spending, which can trigger an increase in the price level.
Cost-push inflation
Cost-push inflation occurs when an economy experiences a negative cost shock.
An increase in costs causes the aggregate supply curve to shift upward and to the left, resulting in a rise in the price level, and a contraction of aggregate demand.
The commonest causes are:
Oil price shocks, caused by wars or decisions by OPEC to restrict output.
Increases in farm prices or general food prices, following a series of poor harvests.
Rapidly rising wage costs.
A fall in the exchange rate, which increases the price of all imports.
Imported cost push inflation as a result of inflation in other parts of the world.
A fall in the exchange rate
A reduction in the exchange rate will mean that more Sterling is required to purchase a given quantity of imports; in other words, the price of imports will rise. After a time-lag, this will feed its way into retail prices. For example, a motor vehicle imported from Germany for 50,000 would cost £25,000 at an exchange rate of £1 - 2. If Sterling falls in value, to £1 = 1.90, then the Sterling price would rise to £26,316.
Given that approximately 35% of the CPI basket of consumer goods and services are imports, the effect of a fall in the exchange rate is to raise the CPI. In addition, imported raw materials are also more expensive so costs of production will rise for those firms that source their inputs from abroad. Therefore, while a low exchange rate may be beneficial for exports, it has as a potentially inflationary effect on costs and prices.
Research by the Bank of England has identified two phases through which a change in the exchange rate 'passes through' the economy.
In phase one, a change in the exchange rate affects import prices fairy quickly.
In phase two, changes in import prices work their way into retail prices. Phase two may take much longer, even up to 3 years to complete.
Causes of deflation
Deflation tends to occur when the economys capacity, as indicated by the position of the AS curve, grows at a faster rate than AD. Firms have to cut prices in order to stimulate sales and get rid of stocks.
Deflation can be triggered by an increase in supply. As business and consumer confidence in the economy declines, AD falls, resulting in recession.