For the BTCFPGA:
$1070 costs you $6.88/month in forgone investment income and $29.72/month in lost resale value. For the BTCFPGA device to match the BFL operating cost ($ * 9/10 =36.60) under this model it must use less than 49.73 - 36.60 = $13.13 in power or 149.77 watts.
Due to lower initial investment per Ghash, the BTCFPGA is still the most profitable at more than twice the power consumption, assuming a three year useful life for both devices. (Power consumption becomes more important with increasing expected lifetime, but one should not forget Moore's Law.)
They _tie_ at 149.77 under your deprecation schedule. I will be quite surprised if it comes in that low a more reasonable number would probably be on the order of 300w. And the deprecation schedule should properly be somewhat longer for the BFL device: Since alternatives on smaller process that use less power would be the major upgrade driver (assuming bitcoin doesn't go bust

). I'll have gotten almost two years out of my GPUs and I don't expect to see progress that rapid on the ASIC front, as we've vastly exceeded moore's law by moving to increasingly specialized hardware.
In any case, my major point was that power really does matter and I think either of these ways of reasoning shows that it does matter. We can debate exactly how much it matters or if bASIC is tied or worse off¸ based on equipment deprecation which is anyone's guess... but at the end of the day delivery times and vibrant competition are more important factors.