Armstrong is a macro guy. he's tracking capital movement of billions and trillions. Something like bitcoin can completely go nuts based on a a few individuals buying or selling 100 million dollars worth of bitcoin. We shouldn't be surprised by anything bitcoin does. It can decouple from the macro movements because it is still too small and volatile. The USD might appreciate 20% against bitcoin because of macro factors that Armstrong is correct on, but we're in the situation where a relatively small amount of capital can move bitcoin up or down 100%. I'm far more likely to pay attention to this macro capital movement stuff when trading big currencies like the British pound or stock indexes like the S&P. Bitcoin can go off the reservation at any time.