BrightAnarchist: You had said something previously about knowing 'with near certainty' that pirateat40 has 10% of the coins left. Any info on that?
I was just following the coins from the deposit addresses. They move in a very bizarre manner, not like normal transactions, but more like deliberate laundering. Basically, one address moves coins sequentially from one address to another (very rapidly, looks scripted), and after each hop a very tiny amount of coins is split off into another address. After hundreds of hops it finally gets to the point where the coins reach 0 and a "leaf" is found. Then all of the tiny addresses recombine later into large accounts.
Here are some of the stashes, you can follow your nose from input addresses to reach these points:
This one has 40K BTC in it:
https://blockchain.info/address/1BqcwhKevdBKeos72b8E32Swjrp4iDVnjPAnother big one with about 7K BTC, coins are still moving (it's ALIVE!):
https://blockchain.info/address/1NuTLFADAHJZqUQ9ogAqroCzDhsGjV5vyEAgain, inputs from BTCST can be directly traced here, and the path definitely does not look like a series of "natural" transactions, but definitely deliberate laundering. Walk the chain yourself, it's boring but you'll see what I mean pretty quick.
I guess we can't be 100% certain though I suppose, so I apologize if saying that was too hasty, but honestly what's the point of a scam if there's no profit? He's got something (although certainly not 500K lol). It's just common sense.