So if one provides a narrower range and hit the right price they'll win over someone who hit the right price with a wider range, correct?
Correct.
Are you really going to remember this in a year? How do we know we're not entertaining your curiosity now? or using our guessing data for your own use? or getting paid for page views as we go to your site where the form is located?
I'll be here, and I'll remember, don't worry. Alternatively, I'm sure someone will remind me of it .
And re: using the data for my own purposes. I'll have a ~10 day head start (then the data becomes public, like I said) on anyone else over a 1 year prediction horizon -- don't think there's much I can do with it.
I love contests and the award you're offering is generous.
Thanks. Don't overthink it. I'm doing this game because I don't like this forum if it's filled with nothing but {bull, bear} spam. That, and that I want to get a feeling for how good we are (collectively) in far-away price estimates. Curiosity, basically.