i dont think we will see the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in jan2016. more like mid/end 2016.
I don't think we will see it before gemini is fully licensed in all American states, and that could take another half a year. Ideally gemini needs to be allowed to accept customers from any country before the ETF launches. Restricting their user base to only Americans will leave a gap in the market that some other business could fill.
I could see that getting complicated... ideally they would allow customers from all over the world to their ETF. But I'm not sure how easy that would be.