Again, apologies for taking some offense. I get so many people who have been so misinformed about mining that look to blame the pool or me for their ignorance, directly or indirectly. Your post read a lot like, "my balance changed for no reason, the pool must be cheating me."
I agree that the stats and website need a full overhaul to make some things more clear and better looking overall. But they are correct as they are. The balance numbers come directly from the reward system and are just parsed and displayed.
My post actually said that I was puzzled, and then you explained (in more pertinent part of your post) how estimated change is handled.
I stayed, but now actively considering leaving for the following reasons:
That long term account which you referred to has luck of 91.4-91.5% right now, which should have almost never happened according to this:
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2015/07/faq-bitcoin-mining-and-luck-statistic.htmlthere is only 1/1000 chance of luck being 91% in 1000 blocks solved by a particular pool.
The account that you referred to, again, has 91.4-91.6% long term luck (more than a year).
In the last 12 mo your pool solved 1644 blocks or close, if I am not mistaken, so probability is even smaller than 1/1000 (organofcorti has no numbers for >1000 blocks).
basically, it can only happen less than one time (one year period) in 1000 years.
I know that you have some ad hoc timing explanation, but ad hoc does not explain statistics.
While
NOT suggesting or implying (directly or indirectly) that something is intentional, it looks likely to me that some calculations are not done right at the back end.
I don't know what it is-stale shares handling, manual payout cutoffs, higher than 100% luck calculation, etc, but in the end it is just not right, and by not right I mean that these numbers are very unlikely to happen.
Well you are right about one thing, bad luck is at the root of the explanation. However that 91.4-91.6% luck absolutely does not describe a miner that has had a stable hashrate and been mining continuously for a year on this pool. You would have a number closer to 94-95% at least. I can't tell you what it would be exactly because my hashrate has varied a bit here and there but my long term numbers on two addresses are both over 94%.