Again, apologies for taking some offense. I get so many people who have been so misinformed about mining that look to blame the pool or me for their ignorance, directly or indirectly. Your post read a lot like, "my balance changed for no reason, the pool must be cheating me."
I agree that the stats and website need a full overhaul to make some things more clear and better looking overall. But they are correct as they are. The balance numbers come directly from the reward system and are just parsed and displayed.
My post actually said that I was puzzled, and then you explained (in more pertinent part of your post) how estimated change is handled.
I stayed, but now actively considering leaving for the following reasons:
That long term account which you referred to has luck of 91.4-91.5% right now, which should have almost never happened according to this:
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2015/07/faq-bitcoin-mining-and-luck-statistic.htmlthere is only 1/1000 chance of luck being 91% in 1000 blocks solved by a particular pool.
I apologise if my post was misleading, but the post refers to the "luck" of the pool, not individual miners - they are affected by their own variance (in finding shares) and the reward method variance.
Including luck and orphans, over the past year the pool as a whole has a profitability of 97.4%, and the CDF is 80.2% which is not so unusual.