Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
oda.krell
on 26/11/2015, 16:22:27 UTC

Look, I get it, you're trying to re-frame the discourse and/or perception of the market. No idea why, but your behavior makes little sense otherwise.

However, may I suggest to start a bit smaller? Looks like you're trying to bite off more than you can chew with such claims. Let's take a look at the larger market picture:



That's the market on Bitstamp since April 2012. "Ancient history", you'll shout, but shush -- it was your idea to talk about the big picture, not mine.

So, realistically, you had about 1 year of time to buy at a "loss" compared to current prices, between Nov. 2013 and Nov. 2014. Buying at any other time means you're not in the red, and, in fact, made a profit (on paper, assuming you're long).

That's going by daily price. If we're more cautious, and instead use some smoothed-out price proxy, say the 200 day simple moving average as plotted above, then the picture still only slightly shifts, to around 13 months chance to buy at a loss (Nov 2013 to end of 2014).

What do we get then? As of now, the market (since mid-2012) gave you a chance of around 1 year of "investing at a loss" vs. 2 and a half years of "investing at a profit", by current (smoothed out) price.

However, that's not even including the pre-Bitstamp period. Let's say Bitcoin trading seriously began in May 2011, when volume (in USD) crossed the 1 million USD mark. Which means, looking at the market as a whole, we get: ~1 year buying at a loss vs. ~3 and a half years of buying at a profit.

Like I said, maybe rethink your strategy. In order to get the idea into peoples' heads that "the market mostly took away" from investors, you're going to need a much longer bear market than this. Try again in two years from now, if price is still making new lows by then -- but maybe don't hold your breath for that happening :)