Yeah when I say "confirmed" I mean it has been put into a block.
That's the first confirm (but by the time I post, or you read the post, it may have more confirms)

I guess some wallets may or may not show the txn on the first confirm, or may be slow updating.

I'd actually suggest checking BlockTrail as well as Blockchain since Blockchain seems to think the payout is too big until it's confirmed

Aside: although I don't think it has ever happened yet, the payout can lose it's confirm if the block that confirmed it was orphaned and the other block that won the orphan race didn't include the payout transaction.
In that case it would just have to wait again until another block included it.