Comparatively speaking, your odds of being struck by lightning in a given calendar year are about 1 in 280,000. The odds of winning my local lottery are about 1 in 176,000,000. So finding a collision on your first try is roughly equivalent to being hit by lightning 16,540,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times per second for an entire year or winning the lottery 830,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 times.
If you find a collision I would stay indoors and play the lottery.
The highlighted part is wrong. The odds of getting struck by lightning n times is not p*n, it's p^n. Ie. the probability of throwing two sixes in a row with a dice is not 1/12, it's 1/36.
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right, so how many lightning strikes per year are we talking to have the same probability of seeing an accidental collision occur between any two generated addresses (assuming 10 billion bitcoin users that each generate 1000 addresses per year)?