So what is the general consensus on what the outcome of the scaling conference this weekend might be?
Blockstream has conceded and it's going to 8mb blocks:
"Another idea that has been gathering support is Blockstream CEO and Hashcash inventor Dr. Adam Back's 2-4-8 quick fix, which would incrementally increase to the limit to 8 megabytes in three steps over four years time."
So small blockers are
officially dead. Adam Back is a part of Blockstream.
It is my estimation that Bitcoin needs around 10MB block size to remove the glass ceiling on price (8MB is close enough), so next stop moon:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1271254.msg13115160#msg13115160Adam floated that 2-4-8 proposal a few months ago. Sorry, but I can't believe that it is a sincere proposal.
AFAIK, that proposal has no implementation yet, not even a BIP. (There are only two proposals with implementations: Gavin's BIP101 and my BIP99½

).
I strongly suspect that Adam does not have any intention of implementing that plan, certainly not before the network gets saturated. I believe that he made that proposal only to pretend that he is a reasonable guy, and to steal support from BIP101.
If the 2-4-8 plan were implemented in time, there would be no "fee market". Then all those small-blockians who are impatient to see the fee market in action would be protesting loudly. Why aren't they? Perhaps because they too sense that Adam does not really mean it?