But taking the model of "honest" staking at face value, at 49% you can only hope to maintain control for a limited number of blocks. At 50%+, you control the chain forever. That's clearly more than 4% increase.
Why is that the case?
Because the power-law distribution applies in any winner-take-all paradigm, which by definition is what a single chain requires.
We can't say the threshold level is specifically at 49% or even that it is abrupt. It depends on the relative distribution of resources the rest of the network wastes defending against the power-law distributed. We need to convolve the opposing cumulative distribution functions.
The reason I am able to eliminate the 50% attack in my design is because I eliminate the winner-take-all from the longest chain by including all chains (as I explained to you upthread, which was my published discovery since 2014).

I am now teaching Satoshi. (see my head expanding, lol)