While you may get lucky holding your coins is not a reliable way to make a decent profit as the price of a bitcoin changes constantly. It is like our realives estate market

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Holding bitcoin in a long term is a must imho, to anticipating unexpected bitcoin price just place small amount bitcoin in your long term plan, like 1-2 bitcoin.
And the rest if you have over 10bitcoin dont put all in long term plan, spread it to another business related to bitcoin like trading etc. So your coin will growing.