OP is saying the recent rise in prices has to be a bubble. I disagree. There may be one coming up in May/June, which can be named "Halving Bubble 2016". But at this point, we are still in a recovery phase from the bottom, there is no bubble yet.
and a few days later, *pop*
I don't expect the bear phase to last past about mid-April to early-May timeframe though, not sure I'd call it the "halfing bubble" as I expect prices to stay a fair bit higer AFTER the halfing but there will be some bubble effect.
The CURRENT bubble is more accurately the "Chineese exchanges start taking fiat currency again" bubble.
On the positive side, the bubble is helping a fair bit to make up for the higher diff increases than I was expecting, and might give my current miners a faint chance at achieving a positive RoI.