Isnt it rather simple? If a block is found every 10 mins and we only have currently around 1900 blocks left until reward drop. That would mean 316 hours left before the drop happens which is about 13 days.
i wanna know the minute it's set to halve
haha, you will know only after the fact. It's kinda like with radioactive decay: you never know exactly when shit happens and you can only make probabilistic assertions over periods of time.
Probably probabilistic uncertainty is the only common property of reward dropping and radioactive decay.