Guardiola's biggest problem on the way to the final is Juventus because the Italian team always proved itself to be a very hard opponent for every european team. If Munchen wins against Juventus I think they'll go directly to the final: it will be a super game!
They could be just lucky last year but that doesnt mean that they will be ale to get into the final again, unless they are very lucky that the draw let all the big teams meet before final and that would be very awesome for them however the chance is really slim for that to happen