win on turn 4 : bet = 105.90374931, spent = 350.89551015, win = 847.27100871, lose = 0.52901874, back = 1.22344878, profit = 497.59894734 (59.407% to lose all)
win on turn 5 : bet = 120.95679999, spent = 471.85281014, win = 967.70131497, lose = 0.60428399, back = 1.75246752, profit = 497.60097235 (52.155% to lose all)
But every roll is a different chance to win/lose no? So technically on the 5th roll you still have a 88% chance to lose.
Every roll has an 88% chance of losing.
But there's only a 59% chance that you'll get to the 5th roll, because 41% of the time you will have won on one of the first 4 rolls.
So 59% of the time you have an 88% chance of losing it all on the 5th roll. That means you have a 52% chance of losing it all if you use this 5-roll-max strategy.
>>> .88 * .59
0.5192
What I'm saying is that if you decide up front that you're only going to do the first 4 rolls, and quit if you lose them all, then you have a 59% chance of losing all your bets.
But if you decide you're going to do all 5 rolls, your risk of losing all your bets drops to 52%.
The more rolls you commit to doing, the smaller your risk of losing all your bets, but the bigger the amount you stand to lose.