that link proves my pt. SW is not a good scaling solution.
It provides effectively the same increase as a 2MB increase without the hassle of a hard fork.
It is live on testnet.
It avoids significant economic damages to the ecosystem brought about by uncertainty of a clearly contentious hard fork.
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Just a quick clarification on SegWit and block size.
Based on current transaction type distribution in an average mined block, SegWit will give you a 1.6/1.7 MB block "size" if and only if 100% of the network upgraded (x4 gain reacheable only for 3-3 multisig txs).
Just take into consideration a likely / optimistic scenario:
- SegWit deployed on May 2016
- 2 month after deployment SoftFork activation will be triggered (95% miners adoption)
- 50% network (all kind of full nodes) upgrade after a year.
if all of the above are satisfied SegWit will bring max block size to 1.35 on Jun/Jul 2017. https://bitco.in/forum/threads/gold-collapsing-bitcoin-up.16/page-251#post-9463