Funny thing about Poisson Processes: Every day you don't stake, you still have 100,000 days to go.
Here's a fun thing:
Pick a random point in time, then:
A) the average amount of time from that point to the next CLAM block is 1 minute
B) the average amount of time from that point to the previous CLAM block is also 1 minute
C) the average time between CLAM blocks is also 1 minute
Wouldn't you expect A + B = C? Yet A, B, and C are all 1 minute.
I'm certain A) is correct, but not so sure about B). Isn't the previous block already fixed in time?
It is absurd that a random point in time would not have equal expected time difference with the previous and next blocks. How could that possibly happen? You could replay the blocks in reverse sequence, right?
The time between poisson events is exponentially distributed and "memoryless". It's defined nicely here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_distribution#Memorylessness. Since the process is memoryless the forward or reversed sequence of inter-block durations are just as likely as any other arbitrary sequence of the same inter-block durations.
I could well be making some kind of error of logic here, but:
* Pick any time random time, T.
* The expected time until the next block is always one minute.
* The time *since* the last block is always T - (time since last block).
* The time since last block is always known and is not always one minute.
* Therefore the expected time since the last block != the expected time until the next block.