Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: Gambling. Is It Wrong?
by
BTCevo
on 19/01/2016, 16:59:43 UTC
No actually martingale is not the best strategy, not even close. Although there are better strategies you will still be on -EV. Here is the strategy example by Dooglus:

With 1 bitcoin:

  bet 0.5 at 33%
  if you win, you get 99/33 = 3x, so you get 1.5 back, a profit of 1 - you've doubled your money

  if you lose, bet the other 0.5 at 24.75%
  if you win, you get 99/24.75 = 4x, so you get 2 back - you've doubled your money

  the only way it goes wrong is if you lose both the 33% and the 24.75% - the chance of that is (1-0.33) * (1-0.2475) = 0.504175
  so the chance of success is 1 - 0.504175 = 0.495825 = 49.5825% - a fraction higher than 49.5

This is just all math thing but the reality when you rolled thing will be different because you really need luck when you do this kind of strategy mostly that you play in a long run this strategy will not affect at all. I never believe this kind of strategy except martingale. Many people already proof some strategy too to me but when I tried it, nothing good happens so better not to try any kind of this strategy again