Seriously, starting a Martingale betting with 16 BTC @ <24000, doubling the bet each round, AND knowing the max bet -> 250 BTC.
Actually it looks like it was part of a longer martingale string starting at 1BTC
2012-11-26 02:57:04 lessthan 24000 b3a47556 6668d56e 1J6CWGD CONFIRMED 8.00000000 LOSE 0.03950000 26537
2012-11-26 02:55:59 lessthan 24000 9655ceda 2604fcda 12EefkA CONFIRMED 4.00000000 LOSE 0.01950000 27720
2012-11-26 02:55:03 lessthan 24000 1bed626e e55adea6 12EefkA CONFIRMED 2.00000000 LOSE 0.00950000 35178
2012-11-26 02:52:54 lessthan 24000 b6101fc4 30a0e637 1FVVboH CONFIRMED 1.00000000 LOSE 0.00450000 46671
The percent chance of losing this string is 1.65%