...
I mention again that very few, if any, can predict the future with anything significantly higher than random, especially in the short-term (I do believe that some can read trends more accurately, and so might have some ability to beat the average when thinking longer-term). Nonetheless, Armstrong HAS acquired a devoted fan base, he would not have as many admirers if he were way off-base.
Disclosure: I have NOT done the research necessary to compare his predictions vs. what actually happened (nor in what TIME-FRAME, smile...), nor how his record stacks up vs. other prognosticators. Also, he mixes political analysis to some degree in almost everything he writes, that makes it harder to properly distinguish factors behind his predictions, on the other hand those predictions partly based on politics are more ambitious and forward-leaning...
But for me, it matters little. He claims to have a supercomputer grinding away on all the data he has amassed. I am willing to give him some time to see how his ideas work out. No one else claims to have put together such a database (not even Goldman Sachs IIRC).
Indeed, when he was in prison, I encountered some 12 or so of his reports via Scribd. They were fascinating, clearly showing a knowledge of financial history.
Again, I started this thread so that people could come along and analyze his stuff. So far, this thread has had total success! Thank you all for playing!
I mention again that very few, if any, can predict the future with anything significantly higher than random, especially in the short-term (I do believe that some can read trends more accurately, and so might have some ability to beat the average when thinking longer-term). Nonetheless, Armstrong HAS acquired a devoted fan base, he would not have as many admirers if he were way off-base.
Disclosure: I have NOT done the research necessary to compare his predictions vs. what actually happened (nor in what TIME-FRAME, smile...), nor how his record stacks up vs. other prognosticators. Also, he mixes political analysis to some degree in almost everything he writes, that makes it harder to properly distinguish factors behind his predictions, on the other hand those predictions partly based on politics are more ambitious and forward-leaning...
But for me, it matters little. He claims to have a supercomputer grinding away on all the data he has amassed. I am willing to give him some time to see how his ideas work out. No one else claims to have put together such a database (not even Goldman Sachs IIRC).
Indeed, when he was in prison, I encountered some 12 or so of his reports via Scribd. They were fascinating, clearly showing a knowledge of financial history.
Again, I started this thread so that people could come along and analyze his stuff. So far, this thread has had total success! Thank you all for playing!