It is waited such post from you only if your age in bitcointalk is the same with your age with the met with bitcoin. So, if you have few time with bitcoin everything you write have meaning and need answer to make you learn something very important. The most primary characteristic of bitcoin is that, is true that bitcoin is to volatile but even unpredictable. So it is true that "he" go up and down but never in the order wanted from the speculators. He can stay at the same price or move within a few interval in which don't worth to speculate with it for a very long time (like "he" did all the last year until November) or go for a long time with few steps only high or only down. So it will be hard for a speculator to know if it would be worth for him to wait to speculate with it. To not tell that even can have loss (to sell not at the wanted price because annoyed from long waiting time or the lost of hope that will arrive wanted by him). That doesn't at all that cannot be even the classical pump and dump. But this cannot be never sure thing.