Your game theory strategy only takes into consideration the maximization of profit in the short term. There are many libertarians and crypto-anarchists who value other goals slightly more than simply using Bitcoin as a highly volatile speculative asset.
Even for libertarian and anarchists, a switch to classic should be indifferent or better. Even if the LN works at all, it will be impractical to use it without going through a big hub; and hubs are going to be totally AML/KNC compliant, which means no anonymous payments, govenment blockades, temporary and even permanent freezing of funds, etc..
Moreover, most coin holdings are not in the hands of ideoologically motivated libertarians and ancaps, but in the hands of profit-motivated investors,
big or small.
We also really don't like a path forward where a democratic majority votes upon each feature as that is a sharp change in bitcoins traditional governance model of anarchistic consensus building based upon evidence and meritocracy.
I know that it is difficult to understand why democracy is "the worst system of government, excluding all the others". It takes the ability to think socially: "Whatever I can think, do, want, or get, others can think, do, want, or get too".
Libertarians and anarchists are notoriously unable to think that way. So, when they conclude that the choices of a minority should prevail over those of the majority, they always assume implicitly that it will be
their minority, not some other minority.