My prediction: Price will surpass the previous ATH in 2016.
Imho the halving is a significant event that will lead to price increases for sure. However it is very difficult to predict the magnitude. Volatility will continue to be extreme.
There are two factors affecting the price this year.
The block size increase to 2MB or higher.
The block reward reduces from 25 to 12.5.
There could be many other factors affecting bitcoin.If the governments completely block/ban it then it could result in a bad way and vice versa...However,there were no such events in the last year but still the price doubled in some months...It's speculation after all.