The light bulb is burning bright. Maybe, a little to bright.
There have been many analysis on the current price by people in the industry and why it shouldn't be there. There is a complex and incalculable effect as to the current price. Sure, fundamentals apply as they should but they do not include the "human factor." One key to the imminent fall in the BTC values is as price goes up overall volume goes down. What is happening is that BTC is breaking away from the mainstream and being supported by a sub-group. This sub-group will eventually be replaced by yet another sub-group, and on and on until only a relative small group of people use it.
Not wanting to see the BTC reduced to history, we need to bring prices down to where people will want to take a chance. No realistic person is going to rely on data from one exchange (MTGOX). Whom, by the way, should be congratulated as one of the first winners in the BTC community, even though generally very little is known about him. Almost mystic in nature. Another problem for most.
As volume decreases expect greater swings in price. There is over 6 Million BTC and around less than 1% of that is traded and setting the price for the vast majority.
But irrespective of that, ask some basic questions. Are enough people currently using BTC? If a new person wants to get into BTC, is it easy to acquire and exchange to the BTC? Is the cost of doing so on par with their own currency or out of balance? Once converted, are their converted funds relatively stable until they use the BTC?