I had quotes around "suspicious" because several people in the MP thread were calling them that. Until there is a investigation of the moneypot logs, no one knows if they were real, or if the guy was just insanely lucky. I know the staff is looking at it though.
I just checked his bet history. He made almost all his profit from a single bet:
https://www.moneypot.com/bets/18530298
The payout table was set to:
121 47 13 5 3 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.4 3 5 13 47 121
and he hit the 121x
He bet 400k bits and so made a profit of 48 BTC.
When I set up the payout table like that myself it tells me the max bet is around 9k bits, so I don't understand why this bet was allowed to go ahead.
This is in agreement with the moneypot FAQ, which says:
I never looked in detail at how the kelly criterion works when there are multiple mutually exclusive outcomes like in the case of plinko bets; maybe it says we should risk this much. Could someone look into it and see?