Post
Topic
Board Gambling
Re: Moneypot just took a huge loss?
by
RHavar
on 29/01/2016, 23:37:05 UTC
If no one else does it, i'll go through it for that bet and see what it should be

My (untested) calculations:

The kelly for that bet is a staggering 0.353028752 (aka the house should risk 35% of it's bankroll)?! wtf?

Seems rather unintuitive, and likely I made a mistake (and possibly twice, once when first writing the generalize kelly code).

Most of the work is in inverting the bet to be from the houses perspective, so here's what I came up with if it is of any help to anyone:

Code:
    { profit: -4800000000, probability: 0.0000152587890625 },
     { profit: -1840000000, probability: 0.000244140625 },
     { profit: -480000000, probability: 0.0018310546875 },
     { profit: -160000000, probability: 0.008544921875 },
     { profit: -80000000, probability: 0.02777099609375 },
     { profit: -16000000, probability: 0.066650390625 },
     { profit: -0, probability: 0.1221923828125 },
     { profit: 20000000, probability: 0.174560546875 },
     { profit: 28000000, probability: 0.196380615234375 },
     { profit: 20000000, probability: 0.174560546875 },
     { profit: -0, probability: 0.1221923828125 },
     { profit: -16000000, probability: 0.066650390625 },
     { profit: -80000000, probability: 0.02777099609375 },
     { profit: -160000000, probability: 0.008544921875 },
     { profit: -480000000, probability: 0.0018310546875 },
     { profit: -1840000000, probability: 0.000244140625 },
     { profit: -4800000000, probability: 0.0000152587890625 }