No, sorry that's wrong. The total pool's hashrate and the duration since the last block have precisely zero effect on your chance of finding a block. Only your hashrate matters. I will keep saying this over and over. If you have a "system" in your head for how to gamble based on current pool hashrate, time since last block, predicting when and where the next block will be etc., that's your business, but please don't try to tell people that it's fact or scientific.
My apologies everyone. -ck knows better, and I am still new to it all. I'm not here trying to convince anyone of anything, I guess it was just my thought process and nothing more. So sorry again, this probably isn't the right place to discuss this anyway, it should be for -ck solo pool.
If you want to find out why this is a common problem, i suggest you research the following terms: