It became clear on the 2014 close (which btw he nailed the price of oil for the close at $54, predicted publicly in his blog when oil was $100+), that the former scenario was the most likely.
Thus he continues to predict accurately on the longer-term.
When you idiots don't even comprehend what MA is writing about, you have no place to come here and troll this thread with your ignorance and lack of comprehension.
Please stop trolling idiots.
Why do you still have to prove your stupidity and embarrass yourself in front of everybody over and over again if everything was clear long time ago?
and the list goes on...
So, not just 1%-10% wrong but wrong big time. Also, he missed the recent commodity collapse and particularly oil.
He likes to constantly bs people about how everything is connected, all asset prices are interlinked, etc. If thats the case, then you cant simply miss such a big move in oil price. Especially if you do have a computer model (as he claims) that tracks everything for you. Yet he missed it completely. He never warned about upcoming collapse. If fact, he predicted the opposite, right at the YTD peak
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/22328 (It is poised to rally into 2017 and it appears this is lining up with our war models). Wars are all over the place yet oil went down sharply. Even when the price declined substantially, he kept ignoring it. He only start mentioning oil when it came to 70.
Nevertheless, let me once again show everybody how stupid you are. Here
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/22328 already after the YTD-peak he said oil would rise into 2017 (the opposite to what happened). This proves beyond all doubts MA
did not predict the collapse. Here in September when oil was at 90 he still did not see the upcoming collapse
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/23450 and even thought it might have been a plot against Russia. Here in November, oil at 80, he still does not get it
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/24733. And only here
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/25545 in December when oil collapsed below 65 he started to acknowledge a serious trend change is potentially on the horizon. Notice, below 65, and not at 100+ as you claim.
Will you finally stop here before you drop to a new low?