As I have mentioned several times before, NO ONE can well predict the future, but Armstrong is walking the plank. Sticking his neck out (reputation anyway) by making fairly flat predictions.
If his calls wind up being statistically superior to others (or vs. random), then that would show that he onto something, perhaps something BIG.
We still have some time to see if Armstrong is gifted, or else just another guy like the rest of us.
If his calls wind up being statistically superior to others (or vs. random), then that would show that he onto something, perhaps something BIG.
We still have some time to see if Armstrong is gifted, or else just another guy like the rest of us.
Sorry but the record already speaks for itself. All of his long-range themes have come true. 100%. Crisis in Ukraine (well before there was any crisis), oil, gold, US stocks, 2007 real estate collapse, etc.. Maybe not exactly to the day and maybe one of 2 or 3 scenarios was elected, but it has never been the case that he has stated A will happen and instead the opposite happened. sloanf habitually takes MA's CONDITIONAL scenarios statements out-of-context and then claims this is failure of prediction. It doesn't matter how many times this is explained to sloanf, he will continue to commit that same mental handicap.
Armstrong then explained the other scenario for gold which is that is to make a CYCLE INVERSION so as to align with its true hedge against government; and here is implying that gold's rise and potentially correction before doing so will be contingent on the progression of the sovereign debt crisis and here is where he explained that the $5000 by 2015/6 would be the unlikely outcome and rather the pause and correction are more likely:
Which is exactly what gold did in 2011 and the resulting decline to $1050 before 2015.75.
Quote from: s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2011/03/armstrongeconomics-how-when-030111.pdf#page=6
...gold is going through a CYCLE INVERSION and this is a good think because it is starting to realign with the major purpose of gold - not a hedge against inflation but the hedge against government...
The key to gold is its CYCLE INVERSION... [that is required to produce a] ...PHASE TRANSITION that is required to produce a big rally...
The market is the only thing that is simply never wrong. For the bull market ahead in gold, a simple pause in NECESSARY. This is how bull markets are sustained.. If we see gold blasting to new highs passing $1500, we are in trouble. This would be a serious development warning that we are now completing a PHASE TRANSITION that could lead to a low 2015.75 and the rally thereafter.
The key to gold is its CYCLE INVERSION... [that is required to produce a] ...PHASE TRANSITION that is required to produce a big rally...
The market is the only thing that is simply never wrong. For the bull market ahead in gold, a simple pause in NECESSARY. This is how bull markets are sustained.. If we see gold blasting to new highs passing $1500, we are in trouble. This would be a serious development warning that we are now completing a PHASE TRANSITION that could lead to a low 2015.75 and the rally thereafter.
Which is exactly what gold did in 2011 and the resulting decline to $1050 before 2015.75.
Any one who fails to see MA exactly predicted the above chart (with the break above $1500 coming roughly July as he predicted for a PHASE TRANSITION as he predicted and then decline to a low in 2015.75) is blind.
That long-term chart of gold makes is very clear that the current deadcat bounce is just that. That chart above has no bottoming pattern yet.
On that chart, you can clearly see that the support lies below $1000 and as low as $800 back from the 2008/9 period. At that price, everyone who bought silver below $9 (as I did when I bought 18,000 oz of Comex bars and minted them into rounds which I sold many of to rpietila for his silver coin business in Finland), will be at a loss and capitulate making the final bottom.