Disclosure: I have no problem with anyone posting here and saying whatever they want. I would not mind if someone wants to do some REAL WORK (= a lot) to take, say, the last 6 months of MA's predictions, post the results, and run a statistical analysis on them. Granted, a lot of work for an uncertain value.
No one here can do that because they don't comprehend his writings. They pull phrases out-of-context of the conditions that Armstrong placed on the contingency and also they don't incorporate a holistic understanding. MA tends to write blog posts that follow on from prior blog posts, and you need to follow them as a conversation in his mind to understand what he is thinking.
I understand his writings and his statistically accuracy is 100% on the long-term trends since I've been following him intently starting 2012. I followed him a bit before that, but his prison writings were incomprehensible for me at that time.
Note he has not stated a 100% certainty that gold drops below $1000 between this March and May. His models say it is very likely, but I doubt he would argue 100% certain. Perhaps 80% or 95%. Regardless, his long-term prediction on gold has been true, which was a PHASE TRANSITION after breaking above $1500 in summer of 2011, then a decline to a low by 2015.75. Gold fell from 1900 to 1050 as predicted.