Post
Topic
Board Development & Technical Discussion
Re: Blockchain Data Suspends Now?
by
deepceleron
on 05/12/2012, 06:54:51 UTC
My Client says that the 210934 blocks already downloaded was from 54 minetes ago. Why? Is this normal? Thanks.

I made two transactions one & half hours ago, but it still gets no confirmation.  Huh

Deepceleron's razor #17: If something is worth saying to a noob, deepceleron has probably already said it.
:

it just took 90 minutes to confirm it was a good tx.

I wonder that the odds are for a 90min block?

imagine we get really unlucky and hit a 3 year block  Cheesy

Assuming a constant hashrate:
-The probability that a block won't be found after 10 minutes is 50%, or .5.
-The probability that a block won't be found after 20 minutes is .5 * .5 = .5 ^ 2 = 25%.
-The probability that a block won't be found after 90 minutes is .00195, 0.2%, indicating 1-in-512 blocks can be expected to take 90 minutes or more (averaging about one in four days with long-term sampling)
-The probability that a block won't be found after one day of mining is .5 ^ 144 = 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000005%