When market moves like it does, or like it did on Finex, Kraken, but quite literally nowhere else......there is no doing it properly.
In the trader community that I am part of, NOBODY called this right. The best, or rather the most disciplined traders, simply didn't take a position, cause BTC was in No-Mans land, and never offered up a trade setup that they liked. Majority will still be in their Long trades however, cos they all mostly trade on OKCoin Futures. Only Finex and Kraken pulled this FU move extraordinaire (I trade on Finex/Kraken).
But believe me, there is a whole elaborate art to technicals based trading that will pay dividends in most markets.......even in BTC, and I can spot right away that this is an art form which you sorely lack.
I have made thousands trading these fucking ridiculous 'arbitrary lines' in the past, the unfortunate thing was that by suceeding with this 'technique', I deluded myself into actually thinking it was a valid methodology. It isn't!
For one thing, you're approaching this from a purely TA standpoint. Bitcoin isn't forex, it doesn't have the insane stabilities of countries behind it. A few people (or china in some cases) can move the market a lot, sending it into a panic.
Mostly recently I've been short both because of the continuing trend, and because of all the drama going on with the blocksize as well as Mike Hearn Leaving. The drama has been a perfect opportunity for the whales to create false panic and cause some price crashes, letting them buy up cheap coins for a while before we end up going up sometime in the near-future.
You're right that my TA isn't exactly world-class, but there's more than pure TA when it comes to trading crypto. It's the ability to use a combination of it to find good times to trade and using the current clusterfucks to your advantage.