Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
BldSwtTrs
on 08/02/2016, 11:46:39 UTC
So basically MA does scenario analysis, like everyone else in the finance industry.

Yup. But has mountains of data going back to the start of human civilization and an A.I. computer model constructed from that data, which enables him to pull order out-of-chaos that other analysts see only as noise or a random walk.
It's probably true that he has mountains of data and an A.I. computer model, but the last part of your statement seems a little bit more debatable.

It's not because you and him see an order that this is an order with any predictive potential. An order that contains predictive potential, if there is any, can be orders of magnitude more complex than the model he came with, and far beyond the reach of his current modeling ability.

You can see pattern in any random sequence, but those are often meaningless patterns. Alternatively, you can see meaningful (ie. with predictive value) patterns which give you only a tiny forecasting edge because you don't understand the next order on the scale of complexity. And the more you try to forecast long term, the more it's important to have an exhaustive comprehension of the relations between things and phenomenon.

In other words, maybe (and probably, imho) he doesn't have solved the mystery of the world yet.