We don't necessarily have to choose between either. Dipping in a fee market event if it proves harmful won't be disastrous as there are always temporary off the chain solutions to buffer the extra tx's (Ironically, those that support Classic), and it will merely sway miners and many other to support increasing the blocksize quickly.
You're leaving out
permanent off chain solutions. You might have seen the alt markets lately... This is not a space without competitive pressure, open source code vs periodic table.
I think your final point is true, the questions are when, and at what cost?
Block reward is the manna to consume while eating everyone else's lunch with unmatched utility. More capacity, more fees, and the inflation curve is ridden with ease.
I'm not against secondary layers, nor structural changes with demonstrated utility, they will be absolutely mandatory for massive scale. However, they build on Bitcoin, sacrifices shouldn't be made to do it the other way around.
@JJG, don't be like BJA, it's not a crisis where everything explodes and fails all at once... it's a slow bleed away of utility and potential.