hello bitcoiners.
-----BITCOIN PRICE AND WHY?
It is known that the price is made by offer/demand no doubt. In BTC there is another variable wich is called Production costs.And like in any business in order to profit you have to sell your stuff for more than you pay for it in the first place.
since 2013 bubble popped the price hit this hard floor in wich production cost is equal(more or less) to the price of bitcoin.
Recent price gains made bitcoin go up from 250 to 500 , that made additional room for miners to profit so more miners bought into the game and because of that they more than doubled the difficulty since its 250$ levels.
based on the above assumptions the price of Bitcoin cant go any lower and if it does it will rebound quickly above 400$ level.
-----HALVING
Ive come across many people wanting to know what will happen to price when halving kicks in. My toughts:
in any market where there is a constant supply and demand like in Bitcoin if the supply halves the price will go up because the demand is still the same , in this case where supply cuts in half it is not wrong to assume that the price will double in my personal view.
many people say that the halvin is priced in ?!?!?!? how is that possible i dont know because right now it costs you about 330-350$ at least to mine a bitcoin with the latest hardware and after the halvind that cost will efectively double. (correct me if im wrong)
-----FUTURE
Simply put : MOON
I suspect your guesstimate for production costs is incorrect, but perhaps more importantly - production costs vary with producer. A large miner in China may well have lower production costs than a small miner in Arkansan. A miner who invested several years ago in solar power will have amortised that fixed cost over several years. A miner reliant on the local electricity generation company will be looking at ongoing and possibly increasing variable costs.When people say "the halving is priced in" what they mean is - traders know the block reward reduction is going to happen. So do miners. The halving isn't going to take most people by surprise. Most traders selling BTC now are aware of the impending block reward reduction, and will trade accordingly - and that includes taking into account the reduced supply of BTC post-halving (i.e. in the future). Miners make decisions in advance - they decide to purchase mining gear in full knowledge that the return from that new equipment will almost certainly diminish over time (due to difficulty increasing) and that there will certainly be a 50% reduction some time later this year. They'll have been selling the coins they generate while being aware of all this, and hoping to cover their costs and make a profit over time, specifically over the lifetime of their mining equipment.
When the block reward reduction happens, we won't see miners or traders being caught out. They knew the halving was going to happen, and they've been targeting what they consider to be a good price - taking what they know will happen into account.This doesn't mean that nearly 4 years ago price increased dramatically to reflect the 2016 halving - the relevance of the halving to price obviously increases as halving approaches. But equally it doesn't mean that the halving will, in and of itself, cause price to dramatically increase. Any dramatic increase is far more likely to (a) be caused by less sophisticated traders hoping to trade off "FOMO" ("fear of missing out" - i.e. when the price goes up they worry it'll continue to go up, and buy in too late), and (b) be short-lived.
I refer to production cost as the average between all mining costs everywhere. Ofc a large mine will have significantly lower power costs versus the average Joe.