-----HALVING
Ive come across many people wanting to know what will happen to price when halving kicks in. My toughts:
in any market where there is a constant supply and demand like in Bitcoin if the supply halves the price will go up because the demand is still the same , in this case where supply cuts in half it is not wrong to assume that the price will double in my personal view.
many people say that the halvin is priced in ?!?!?!? how is that possible i dont know because right now it costs you about 330-350$ at least to mine a bitcoin with the latest hardware and after the halvind that cost will efectively double. (correct me if im wrong)
I think this logic makes sense in theory, but it doesn't really tell the whole story. I'll start off by saying that I think that the halving will either cause a small, gradual rise in price or none at all.
First of all, the halving is an extremely anticipate-able event. Everyone knows when it will happen, and people who believe it will cause the price to rise or fall will make their trades well ahead of time.
Second of all, the supply of bitcoin does not get cut in half when the halving occurs... the rate at which new bitcoin gets created is what gets cut in half. It will take a while for this to translate to a significantly lower supply (relative to demand) than there is now. This is why I think a rise would be gradual.
Lastly, a sudden rise in price would imply a higher demand for bitcoin, which I don't think is ever a safe bet. I don't see any reason to believe that the halving would lead to a higher demand for bitcoin - just a lower supply relative to the current demand.