Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
billyjoeallen's short doesn't seem so ridiculous today.
Yeah, but from what I recall, he began to make it in about the mid $370s and he staggered it a bit to add more and more to it until about the $390s...
So, yeah, it's possible that we may go back down into the $390s or even lower, but BJA was probably considering going into the $360s or lower, which seems a bit of a further stretch.. not impossible, but todays momentum seems somewhat inclined towards the up... with possibly a correction to lower $400s or possibly into the $390s?
Yeah, I'm guessing too.
if todd tomorrow makes it clear that he will never touch 1MB block size
shit could hit the fan? who knows...
Short term, that would do it, but if he really has no intention of ever touching it and says so, then we could get on with this. We are being strung along.
OTOH, If Core makes it clear that there will be a 2MB hardfork within six months, then both Classic and my short are dust.
What is most likely is that there will be more noncommittal hemming and hawing and a slow realization that we have been played once again. As Classic approaches 50% of nodes, expect a crash.
Markets hate uncertainty. That is what you want to bet against, not any particular outcome.
More or less, I think that all of your above points are largely fair; however, I don't get why so many people feel that it is necessary to frame the resolution of this scaling question as if a hardfork is actually a necessary component? That push for a hard fork really means that there is not agreement and is part of the whole contention and resistance to some proposed blocksize increase proposals.
A hard fork, in itself (unless nearly completely unanimous consensus) creates a considerable amount of uncertainty that many core supporters want to avoid.
Therefore, if whatever resolution can be achieved via softfork (and not a contentious hardfork), then there seems to be a lot more flexibility and even acceptance of such proposals from a variety of the core supporters.