There is too much volatility in Bitcoin to properly measure whether there is a correlation or not. If Bitcoin were to stabilize we could have a better picture.
Yes. I think the bitcoin has too much volatility. If the bitcoin price just rises 1% a week, that will make it very valuable.
IMO I think the price will stabilize (to a certain degree) after the halving occurs, I think the run up to this will show increased volatility but after the halving I believe it will settle and then maybe more accurate comparisons can be made to real world markets.
The price peak in 2013 was about 11 months after the halving. The price rose a lot at the time.