Personally i'm hedging at the moment because nobody knows for sure.
My current theory is that the recent price increase was people pricing in the reward cut that is happening in June. Therefore i don't expect a huge price rise this summer.
Long term i would still hold. Bitcoin adoptation is still growing, which should drive the price up a bit.
Short term i see a lot of sell pressure competing with some firm buy pressure from people still believing in a price increase. I can't tell which is stronger but the trend has been slightly downwards. If that breaks stop-losses we could see a short term dump. The current mempool problem (full blocks) could be the catalyst for a sell-off.
^^ Yep.
Absolutely everyone is taking a long position in Bitcoin cos of the 'halving', which could explain why the price has doubled from it's 2015 mean over the past few months....so who is left to take Bitcoin up further purely on grounds of 'the halving'?
It would not surprise me at all, if analysts are refering to the 'Bitcoin Halving' as a classic Buy the Rumour, Sell the News event 6-7 months down the line, in a Smart Alec tone, as though they knew it all along.
With that said, if a bitcoin halving event doesn't provide the fuel for a good old manufactured pump, then I don't know what will....so erm, yeah...I am on the fence for whether it will, or whether it won't pump and will take my ques from market structure.