Yeah...... I agree generally summer-ish.

Based on current market dynamics, I would predict going above $500 to be anywhere between 1 day and 2 years.


In my current thinking, the range of probabilities of going above $500 would look something like this.

1-5 days   = less than 2%

6-15 days   = less than 8%

16-30 days  = about 20%

31-60 days  = about 30%

61-120 days = about 50%

121-364 days = about 80%

1 year to 2 years = about 95%


Any better predictions?  


By the way, I would think that at this current moment and these current market conditions, most regular and somewhat knowledgable bitcoiners would also place the odds of bitcoin prices going above $500 first to be better than the odds of going below $300 first, but I'm sure that there are a number of outlier opinions on that.