NCAAB: BYU averages 83.6 points per game, and Gonzaga averages 79.3 points per game.
Yet their last two meetings they have held eachother much lower:
2/27/16 GON 71-68: line for total was 155.5, ended 139
1/14/16 BYU 69-68 GON: line for total was 162.5, ended 137
For today's game the total is at 150... still too high?
BYU plays an uptempo style with a lot of three point attempts. Gonzaga has good 3pt shot defense, better defense in general. Gonzaga has held 12 straight opponents under 70 points.
The game is a TV game on ESPN2 and is being played on a neutral court at Orleans Las Vegas. The total for the game opened at 151.5 and is down to 150. The total has gone UNDER in 10 of BYU's last 12 games when playing Gonzaga.
I'm predicting that since it is a big game on ESPN2, and in Vegas, it's assumed people are betting on the favorite Gonzaga -3 and the over 150.5 total. Their last two meetings this year were only decided by three points, could've gone either way, yet the total was off by over 15 points both times this year!
I'm assuming the total is inflated again, and am risking 0.002 BTC on the under 150.5 @1.98 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/0ebaa0cVkFQTDZKaXNSQlUzR3kzbVRWSmJEQT09/r/595422http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400870250*
O/U line for first half was 71... and they scored 94 points in the first half. 94 points!
Projected total for the game is now 184! Again, I am very wrong.
The lines for the totals are so inaccurate; this is interesting at least. I need to learn how to calculate totals as an experiment and compare to the existing lines.
Also I found out Nitrogen Sports does not provide 2nd half totals on NCAA basketball games (also NBA). Why don't they? Is there a reason?
profit (-0.004 BTC)