Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: 0.001 BTC to 1 BTC Challenge [sports betting]
by
niagwai
on 08/03/2016, 06:46:34 UTC
Tennis live bet: Langer is 7-0 H2H against Krawietz, and today prematch Langer ml was ~1.4 odds.
He just lost the first set to Krawietz, but considering he has not lost to Krawietz in 7 matches I like his chances with the odds @2.65.
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1415010

Risking 0.0015 BTC on Nils Langer ml @2.65 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/84c7fc9VXpTODlNdTg2VjhlTFpSQ0ZPTjZudz09/r/595422/

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Langer did not care very much in the second set, and didn't appear to give an honest effort. I guess there was somewhere else he wanted to be instead of this small Chinese tournament.

At this rate I will get to 1 negative BTC in no time. Don't go chasing waterfalls...

Profit (-0.0055 BTC)

**
After further investigation this was the first match Langer had played in over 21 days. In his last match he retired down 4-2 in the first set. This should have been a gigantic warning sign! He retired in his last match, and couldn't make it out of the first set. There is no explanation of his reason for retiring. Wait, it gets better...

Langer's last match:
13.02.2016, Wroclaw challenger, 1st Round qualifying, Langer- 4-2 first set, retired
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1407187
After this match he played the challenger match in China (Zhuhai) that I bet on and lost in the first round.

Go back one year:
14.02.2015, Wroclaw challenger, 1st Round qualifying, Langer retired
http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1282831
After this he played two challenger matches in China (Guangzhou, Shenzhen) and lost both in the first round.

Weird how similar the results are, and I'm not entirely sure what they mean. It is super interesting to think about player motivation. Maybe there are times of the year, areas of the world, or certain tournaments where a player is more likely to retire, tank, lose on purpose for various reasons. If a player retired in their last match be wary of betting on them. Are they healthy, are they motivated, how can you even know?